The Call record
Last updated August 30, 2026
A DogBone Capital member can choose to publish their own verified record of investment calls. Verified here means one specific thing: each call was locked before it settled and has not been changed since. It does not mean the platform, the club, or anyone else endorses the call or the person who made it. Every figure on a published record is derived only from settled calls — a call whose outcome is final — and is measured against the price target, stop, and horizon the member committed to when the call was locked. All trading on the platform is simulated; a call record measures judgment, not real money.
What counts
A call is one locked, timestamped forecast: a direction (long or short), a price target, an optional stop, a probability, and a horizon. It settles when it touches its target, breaches its stop, reaches its horizon, or is manually closed. Only settled calls appear on the record — open calls and drafts are never shown, and a call cannot be edited after it locks.
The figures
- Direction hit rate — the share of settled calls whose realized move matched the stated direction.
- Average move capture — how much of each call's predicted move actually materialized, averaged across settled calls (over-capture can exceed 100%).
- Calibration — how well the stated probabilities matched outcomes, scored as one minus the mean Brier score. Higher is better-calibrated.
- Average excess vs benchmark — the average return over each call's window minus a benchmark over the same window, in percentage points.
- Horizon kept — whether the call resolved within the horizon it was given.
Reliability tiers
Every record is stamped with the number of settled calls (n) and a reliability tier, and the two are always shown together:
- Provisional — fewer than 10 settled calls. The figures are an early, low-confidence sample and are labeled as such.
- Emerging — 10 to 29 settled calls.
- Established — 30 or more settled calls.
What a record is not
A published record shows one member's own results. It is never a ranking, a leaderboard, or a comparison against other members — DogBone Capital does not publish comparative member rankings anywhere. A strong record grants no authority, tier, or role on the platform; it is a résumé artifact, nothing more.
A member controls their record from Settings — Profile. It is off by default, and publishing it also requires the profile to be public.