NVDA DCF — Assumptions & Output

Companion valuation model to IC_Memo_NVDA, built independently as a discipline check on the IC memo's ~67x trailing-P/E multiple framework. Full model: deliverables/2026-07-11-seed/Model_NVDA_DCF.xlsx (sheets: Assumptions, DCF, Sensitivity)

The only live-pulled input is price: NVDA last $210.99 (platform get_quote, 2026-07-10 session close). Every operating assumption is the analyst's approximate, clearly-labeled estimate — grounded where possible in NVIDIA's FY2025 actual disclosures (revenue ~$130.5B, operating margin ~62%, both approximate) but not independently re-verified via a live filings or consensus feed this session, and no post-May-2025 actuals are asserted anywhere in the model.

Key assumptions:

• Revenue growth path, FY26E→FY30E: 40% / 25% / 18% / 14% / 12% (decelerating, illustrative — not a consensus estimate)
• Operating margin bridge, FY26E→FY30E: 61% / 59% / 58% / 57% / 56% (gradual normalization from the FY2025A base, reflecting the competitive/cyclicality risk named in IC_Memo_NVDA)
• Tax rate 16%; FCF conversion (FCF/NOPAT) 85%
• WACC 10.5% (set modestly above a typical large-cap rate to reflect customer-concentration/cyclicality risk); terminal growth 3.5%
• Net cash $15,000mm and diluted shares ~24,300mm (both approximate, simplifying assumptions)

Base-case output: $67.93 per share — Enterprise Value ≈ $1.64T (PV of FY26E–FY30E FCF ≈ $401B + PV of terminal value ≈ $1.23T at a 14.3x terminal FCF multiple), plus net cash, over ~24.3B diluted shares.

Sensitivity (WACC × terminal growth, 5×5 grid): ranges from $48.44/share (WACC 12.5%, g 2.5%) to $116.44/share (WACC 8.5%, g 4.5%); the base case (WACC 10.5%, g 3.5%) sits at $67.93.

Reading the gap to the live price: the base case sits well below the $210.99 live quote — a real, honestly-computed result, not an error. A 5-year explicit forecast plus a moderate terminal multiple is a conservative framework; the live price implies the market is pricing in a longer hypergrowth runway, a lower effective discount rate, or optionality this simplified model doesn't capture. Even at the most favorable corner of the sensitivity grid (WACC 8.5%, g 4.5%), the model tops out at $116.44 — still short of the live price. This is consistent with IC_Memo_NVDA's own valuation section, which flagged the ~67x trailing multiple as defensible only with continued substantial growth: this DCF is one way of showing concretely what "continued substantial growth" has to mean.